Brian Copeland

By Brian Copeland, 2009 NAR Conference Blogger

Entering the Westin, you definitely get the Wizard of Oz Emerald City feel that its known for.  As mentioned in my other blog, the interesting architecture abounds in San Diego.

I made my way to the Council of Residential Specialists (CRS) pre-conference meetings.  This morning’s topic, International Affairs, lead by Jed Smith, Managing Director for Quantitative Research for NAR.

Takeaways from Mr. Smith presentation:

1. Economy and housing is getting substantially better from this time last year domestically.  Our market reacts with the international market.

2. Economics, Government and People Some Forecasting Issues:

a. Modeling The Economy.  Did we get it right?, Government.  What’s the government going to do? People.  Are they scared to act?  Are they rational?

b. Risks and Uncertainties:  The world is recovering from recession

c. Domestic and International Interactions:  commercial real estate is a huge factor or the “iceberg.”  Residential mortgages and rolling over of those mortgages.

3. Some Federal incentives have been delayed but will be coming to fruition.  (Home Affordable Refinance Program, Home Affordable Modification Program, Upside down mortgages, removing toxic assets from balance sheets.)

4. Guessing a 2.4 percent GDP growth in 2010 as opposed to 2009’s –2.7 percent decline.

5. Many foreign purchasers pay with cash.  If you have international buyers, you can confidently tell them that in two to three year, they can look back and say that perhaps they purchased “at the bottom.”